Monday, February 17, 2025

How long will “high” beef cattle sales prices last?

CONCEPTIONS   Beef cow-calf route newsletter  Nov Dec 2024

Mark Curry           (989) 984- 7027
      Route service and sales/ Ov Synch AI by appointment
Sue Palen              (989) 277- 0480      Office manager/ advance order desk/ products
Greg Palen            (989) 277- 0631      Certified seed specialist/ Refresher AI training

Mich Livestock Service, Inc     “For the Best in Bulls”     “For the Best in forages”
110 N Main St  (PO Box 661)   Ovid,   MI   48866    ***      phone (989) 834- 2661

Featuring sires through “Cattle Visions”           Featuring “Byron Seeds”   Kingfisher & Red Tail

In economics classes we learned that the pricing of “commodities” always falls to the level that clears the market of supply.   In most of agriculture, the industrial model of advice is “More yield solves all financial problems”—which has never worked for us (increased production beyond the quantity the market is prepared to use results in lowering prices to absorb the yield increment).

Thus, the secret to profitable farm commodity production is to become a least cost producer (rather than a maximum yield producer).    This allows you to capture savings when prices are good, to carry you through times when prices are not so good.    (Savings allows you to put up bins to store grain when you don’t like the current price, holding it from the market so as not to force prices lower).    (SAVINGS ALLOWS THE CATTLE PRODUCER TO SELL LOWEST EQUITY VALUE ANIMALS WHEN PRICES ARE LOW, RETAINING GROWTH EQUITY ANIMALS TO A FUTURE HIGHER VALUE.)       Cost control allows you a chance of profit whether prices are up or down.

It  Is  a  perversity  of government “cheap food”  policy ( since FDR’s  Great Depression)  that whenever a  farm  product  reaches  a  profitable  price,  the  ag  media  says  we  have “high” prices – instead  of  being  thankful  that  current  prices  allow  farmers  to  rebuild  equity  and stay in  food  production  for  the 95%  of people  who  do  not  grow  any food  for  themselves!

Will profitable prices continue?    The USA population of beef momma cows is at its lowest level since 1965.    The USA human population is 50% larger today than it was then.    As consumption of beef today “per capita” is nearly as high as it was in 1965, the national dairy herd  (producing deacon bull calves to feedlot and cull cows for hamburger)  has taken up the slack.    This aided the grain markets in propping up corn and soybean prices, given feedlot feeding of “dairy beef” was focused on grain (rather than pasture and hay, the preferred steer feed for critters still on a farm).

Recently, the practice of breeding dairy cows to beef breed sires  (to produce “premium” price deacon calves) is helping the expansion dairies generate non-milk cash flow to pay rising labor bills.    In spite of “sexed” semen, it now appears there is a shortage of dairy replacements.

How  does  dairy  farming  affect  beef  production ?

Anyone who has a dairy farm, whether the industry would admit it or not, was also in the beef business.   A ten million cow dairy population (prior to sexed semen) produced four million bull calves annually, ending up in feedlots.    Prior to 2015, these Deacon bull calves generated $400 million in non-mik income!     As dairy cows turned over after three calvings, you also had three million cows culled annually generating $500 million in non-milk income.  Cull cows and deacon  calves helped finance the large-herd replacement deficits, which was the biggest stimulus to the development of gender-selected semen!   Smaller dairies with better reproduction and herdlife were always the source of surplus cows to keep the expansion dairies in supply;  as they have been forced out, prices for replacements have risen to the $3000 mark, the highest-ever point in the history of modern dairy).   

Value of deacon calves is four times what they used to be;  salvage on culled dairy cows twice what they used to be.    The deacon calf price has influenced 20% of dairy cows to be bred Beef, and with the national dairy herd down to Nine million cows (one million less than it has been for twenty five years!)  you can see how all-time record prices for beef feeding and slaughter cattle have led the dairy breeding industry to acknowledge Beef selection for the first time ever.

Basically, for your operation, smaller national cow herds (both Beef and Dairy) means your cow herd is worth more than ever, and your calf crop worth more than ever before.   Reproduction is the key to converting this value into farm income.

NOTE to PUREBRED and SHOW BREEDERS:   when commercial (commodity) cattle prices go up, the cost of quality replacements to improve your herd become more reasonable in comparison.  
The biggest weakness in cow herds built on EBV or show type selection is often related to lower natural fertility or more difficult calving.    Now is the time to do culling that improves your cow herd to regain maternal traits that optimize reproduction and calving ease, and in selection for new cows, seek longer reproductive life.    

The effect of grazing on financial returns to your land ownership

If you are a cash-crop farmer with cattle “on the side” you are painfully aware of how the runup in corn and soybean prices has run itself back down.    As your cheapest land is what you rent, it may still be profitable to plant row crops in rotation on that land;  but for any land you own, the growing of forages and the grazing of your cattle generates more profit than any “legal” crop.

The math is really quite simple.    If corn is $4.00 per bushel, and you are a good enough farmer to get 200 bushel per acre, you gross $800 per acre on corn, before all the costs.    Those costs are considerable, as you know:  seed, spray, fertilizer, fuel, machinery overhead, land rent…

If you return your “home” fields to grazing, dairy farmers have learned that high energy grasses generate $3000+ per dry matter ton in milk.   You can get 2 to 3 tons dry matter per acre from a grass pasture rotated to keep it vegetative (which means more than two cuttings of hay…)

Producing  quality  forage  for  cattle  within  a  grain  farming  emphasis 

Everyone knows the best corn crop you ever grow, is in that first year after you rip up an old alfalfa stand.     The soil is full of accumulated nitrogen from the nodules on the alfalfa roots.   The years away from row cropping have rebuilt soil structure with organic matter, and those corn root borers and other pests died or moved to other fields.   

You can rotate annual forage crops like Winter Triticale between corn and soybeans, planting as soon as your grain crop is harvested.    Triticale will be ready to harvest as a forage by mid-May (pre-seed heads) and your next corn planting will be timely.     The double crop insertion feeds desired soil biology through the winter, increasing nutrient transport capacity in the grain crop, and inhibits the overwintering of corn borer and other corn-specific pests.

Consider this as your new seeding approach:  Plant a Synergy X blend of alfalfa with a non-oat cover you can harvest green or wilt to bale in the same season.    In the following year, once a year of clear alfalfa has passed, it will be producing root zone nitrogen;  overseed high energy grass blends that will fill in open spaces between the alfalfa rows, and develop maximum tons of hay per acre.    Once the field is half grass, fence it and graze it (maybe you just bale a first cutting and rotate graze the rest of the year).     You can always frost seed red clover and cows will continue to see an optimal energy feed in front of them each season.

Whether you get five years or seven or ten years from this, you will be feeding an optimal feed to a maximum number of animals, while maintaining grain crop production in rotations as well as on your rental lands (which can always benefit from your winter-stored manure).

Why rotate graze?

Dairy farms set up for haylage harvest in Michigan generally get three cuttings in.    Those with dry hay baling systems only got two cuttings this year, most places.     If you push alfalfa into a four-cut season, you generally end up with only a three year stand life.   Nationally, the alfalfa acreage has declined from its peak, as big seed companies (owned by chemical companies!!) make a lot more on chemically-dependent GMO row crops.    However, when it comes to any farm feeding ruminants, the blend of legume alfalfa with high digestible grass is ideal for any momma-cow operation, nutritionally superior to corn silage and a lower cost per acre.

How does rotation make the difference?     We used to get six passes per acre in grazing our cows, by keeping the grasses in a vegetative (pre-seed head) state.    Picking the worst stand for that spring’s “sacrifice lot” (to get the cows outside for the earliest grass), all the other pastures could be cut for first-crop hay, and then rotate their regrowth for the remainder of the season.  
First-cut hay would feed the cows all winter;  the sacrifice lot would get planted to a grazable summer annual (we liked BMR-6 sudangrass) that could produce feed for the six weeks of hot, dry summer when the grass pastures are slowed down and need to regenerate roots. 


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